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Practical World True News Magazine

#Brexit : What happens now?

Prime Minister David Cameron has announced that he will resign in October, heeding calls by his rivals that his position was untenable having failed to convince Britons to remain in the bloc. 
                                                            

"I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady the ship in coming months, but I do not think it would be right for me to captain that ship," Cameron said on Friday morning during a news conference outside 10 Downing Street.

"There is no need for a precise timetable today, but we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the start of Conservative conference in October."

On the economy, a plunge in the value of the pound and share prices is expected in the coming days, which would cause the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

Indeed, the British pound fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years during the vote as a victory for Leave looked increasingly likely. Markets also plummeted as a Brexit was confirmed.

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which guides member states wishing to leave the EU, is a vague map towards the exit door.

Cameron has previously said that in case of a Leave victory, the government would invoke this article immediately and start the long and complicated Brexit process.

"There is no turning back if we leave," he wrote in a Telegraph article. "If we choose to go out of the EU, we will go out - with all of the consequences that will have for everyone in Britain."

Once Article 50 is invoked, it could take Britain up to two years to actually leave the EU.

During the two-year negotiation period, EU laws would still apply to the UK.

The UK would continue to participate in other EU business as normal, but it would not participate in internal EU discussions or decisions about its own withdrawal.

Once Article 50 is triggered, the terms of Brexit will be negotiated not by British politicians or diplomats, but by the other 27 nations of the EU.

And, when the members are ready, they will present the British government with a departure agreement on a "take it or leave it" basis.
Negotiating Brexit

With the stability of the global economy at risk, the European Central Bank is widely expected to make a statement to reassure markets on Friday.

EU President Donald Tusk, European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker, European Parliament head Martin Schulz and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country holds the six-month EU presidency, made a joint statement in Brussels.

"This is an unprecedented situation, but we are united in our response," they said. The four said they expected Britain to "give effect to this decision ... as soon as possible," by enacting article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

European affairs ministers will meet in Luxembourg to lay the groundwork for Brexit talks at the EU summit on June 28-29. Talks start at 12:30 GMT.

Foreign ministers from the EU's six founding countries - France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg - are expected to meet on Saturday in Berlin, according to European sources.

French President Francois Hollande will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel next week to discuss "European initiatives".

The Merkel-Hollande meeting could be the occasion to announce plans for a long-rumoured Franco-German initiative on a better integrated defence and security strategy for Europe.

The leaders are seeking to use the plan to dispel doubts on the EU project unleashed by the British vote campaign.

On Monday the European Commission's top officials, who are nominated by the EU's member states, will begin mapping out the long road to an official Brexit at an extraordinary meeting in Brussels.

MEPs have also called for an extraordinary session of the European Parliament to be held in Brussels on Monday in the case of a Brexit vote.
'Brexit summit'

The 28 EU leaders - still including Cameron - will meet on June 28 and 29 in Brussels to digest and debate the results of Thursday's Leave vote.

It was originally due to be held on June 23 but was postponed after the British referendum date was announced.

On July 1, the Netherlands hands over the EU's six-month rotating presidency to the relatively inexperienced Slovakia, which now must lead the negotiations towards Brexit.

Britain had been due to take the helm at the end of 2017 but will now give that up.

EU civil servants will delay summer holidays to begin the painstaking legal work to bring about Brexit.

The official British divorce from Europe would take at least two years. But EU president Donald Tusk has warned that the whole process of negotiating trade and immigration deals with a non-EU Britain could take seven years in all.

------------------------------------------ ANOTHER POINT VIEW ----------------------------------------


More than three years after David Cameron unveiled his strategy to reform Europe and put it to a referendum, Britain has voted to leave and the Prime Minister has resigned.



It is the greatest disaster to befall the block in its 59-year history. The road ahead is unclear. No state has left the European Union before, and the rules for exit – contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon – are brief.

Mr Cameron resigned as Prime Minister shortly after 8am, announcing that he thinks Britain should have a new Prime Minister in place by the start of the Conservative conference in October. He will leave the task of triggering Article 50 to his successor.

The EU's leadership has demanded Britain activate Article 50 exit talks "as soon as possible" as they attempt to end the uncertainty over the bloc, "however painful that process may be".

                                                                    

Donald Tusk

President Tusk, President Schulz and Prime Minister Rutte met this morning in Brussels upon the invitation of European Commission President Juncker.



European Commission President Juncker.
"Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty. We have rules to deal with this in an orderly way. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets out the procedure to be followed if a Member State decides to leave the European Union," the official statement said. "We stand ready to launch negotiations swiftly with the United Kingdom regarding the terms and conditions of its withdrawal from the European Union."


Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has said it is ready to intervene to steady the markets. Central bankers from Japan to Switzerland have also offered to step in to provide additional liquidity - a measure not seen since the financial crisis.

On Saturday, the foreign ministers of the founding six member states – France, Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy and Belgium – will meet to discuss the implications of the British vote.
The summit

David Cameron will next see his counterparts at a European Council summit on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.



The deal, struck after months of negotiation last summer, has evaporated under a ‘self-destruct’ clause.

He will be under intense pressure to activate Article 50 and commence exit negotiations. Leaders do not want to be drawn into months and years of haggling over Britain’s status: “Out is out,” Jean-Claude Juncker said on Wednesday.

By contrast, the official Out campaign has said there is no need to trigger Article 50 until informal negotiations have taken place – potentially lasting years.

Also on the agenda is a discussion of the migration crisis, including tentative proposals for “compacts” to speedily deport migrants back to Africa and the current deployment of naval craft off Libya to intercept smugglers. Britain has a major role in this – a British warship is deployed in the EU’s naval operation and a second has been promised – but the crisis takes a back seat.
Article 50 – and a new deal

Bank of England

Triggering Article 50, formally notifying the intension to withdraw, starts a two-year clock running. After that, the Treaties that govern membership no longer apply to Britain. The terms of exit will be negotiated between Britain’s 27 counterparts, and each will have a veto over the conditions.

It will also be subject to ratification in national parliaments, meaning, for example, that Belgian MPs could stymie the entire process.

Two vast negotiating teams will be created, far larger than those seen in the British renegotiation. The EU side is likely to be headed by one of the current Commissioners.

Untying Britain from the old membership is the easy bit. Harder would be agreeing a new trading relationship, establishing what tariffs and other barriers to entry are permitted, and agreeing on obligations such as free movement. Such a process, EU leaders claim, could take another five years.

Business leaders want the easiest terms possible, to prevent economic harm. But political leaders say the conditions will be brutal to discourage other states from following suit.
The Department for Brexit

One option will be to simply recreate EU laws as British statute. But Civil Service insiders expect a new Brexit government to opt for something much more radical, and to use the opportunity of “throwing off the shackles” to re-regulate Britain.

                                                                 


It means that the Government would have to do three acts simultaneous: negotiate a new deal with Brussels, win a series of major bilateral trade deals around the world, and revise its own governance as EU law recedes.

Running the show would be an effective “Ministry for Brexit”, under a senior minister.

Officials expect the scrapping of EU law could result in an avalanche of new legislation in every corner of Whitehall – perhaps 25 Bills in every Queen’s Speech for a decade.

Hundreds of Treasury lawyers and experts would have to be hired for areas – such as health and safety, financial services and employment – where Britain had lost competence to Brussels. Meanwhile, a Trade Ministry will be required, with hundreds of new negotiators, to establish new deals around the world.
Brussels reels

The focus in Brussels now turns to holding the project together.

Proposals for closer defence integration, prepared by Federica Mogherini, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, were due to be sent to national governments today. That is likely to be put on hold. But building up the EU’s defence co-operation is regarded by France and Germany as an obvious way of rebooting the project.

Jean-Claude Juncker has called for tighter integration in the event of a Brexit, and has laid out plans for integration of the Eurozone, including a treasury, in order to prevent a recurrence of the Greek crisis. Hitherto, member states have not been ready for that conversation – but the crisis of Brexit is likely to push it up the agenda.

At the same time, leaders fear that Brexit could trigger a domino effect as the bloc without Britain becomes less attractive to liberal, rich northern states such as Denmark and the Netherlands, where demands are growing for copy-cat plebiscites.

The Dutch elections are held in March next year, the French in April and May and Germany in the Autumn. If an independent Britain proves to be a success, the bloc could quickly unravel.

On March 25, 2017, European leaders will mark the sixtieth anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, the EU’s founding document. It will be a fraught celebration.
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